Categories
Physical

Show me the money

Academic definition:

A capital market is a market for securities (debt or equity), where business enterprises (companies) and governments can raise long-term funds. In primary markets, new stock or bond issues are sold to investors via a mechanism known as underwriting. In the secondary markets, existing securities are sold and bought among investors or traders, usually on a securities exchange, over-the-counter, or elsewhere. [source Wikipedia].

The truth:

Categories
Mental

Bayes’ theorem and the base rate neglect

This is a continuation of the previous posting. Please click here to go to the first posting.

The answer is 41%. Why?

To recap,

  • 85% of the car is Green and the remaining 15% Blue
  • A witness testified that the cab involved in the accident was Blue
  • The witness was tested for the ability to discriminate Green from Blue and was found to be correct 80% of the time
  • What is the probability that the cab in the accident was Blue as the witness testified?

(a)    80% (b)   50% (c)    41% (d)   29%

Categories
Mental

Debunking the myth: “I am 80% smarter than you”

As best as science can describe it, there is a short cut system in us, scientifically called System 1 or commonly known as Intuition or Six Sense. The bestseller author Malcolm Gladwell romanticized the term Blink, which basically meant the same thing.

All of us would definitely experience this, but almost vaguely if we don’t stop to ponder upon it. Are women more gifted with intuition since they are more feely type?

Categories
Mental

Borrowing a corpse to resurrect the soul (Jie Shi Huan Hun)

Many things have had happened since I last updated this blog.

For one, my uncle passed away. Healthy, therefore all the more devastatingly unexpected. The feeling is strange if you had dinner with a person only to find out he or she is dead the following day. Life is just too fragile to be mindful of everything. I guess through some twisted logic, Joker came to the conclusion, “Why so serious”…why so serious indeed?