dimpledbrain

The conceptual framework for a man's search for meaning

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FBMKLCI

November 13th, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. We last left the update on KLCI in early August
  2. Marked points 2 & 3 as a continuation of the previous post
  3. No timely update as I have changed my stock software and note now I could not see the volume (but let’s manage)
  4. At #3, I said it was bullish and to look out for a pullback after #3 to confirm the upmove. Subsequently the pullback ‘overpulled’ and wiped out entire gain at Point 2 ( the lower of the trading channel)
  5. 2 to 3 weeks after the last post, the price dropped precipitously until it got checked on 10 Sept. It then struggled around 1520 before dipping another low on 2 Nov
  6. At the current point, to blast upward, it needs to absorb the area 3, failing which it will go back (the max it will go) to the lower of the trading channel (before deciding to go back up or breaking down from there again)

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FBMKLCI

August 7th, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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Timely update for FBMKLCI

(1) We last left it at 0 where I said the max it can go is 1550 before a change of behaviour

(2) What transpired was it actually went to as high as ~ 1600 (Point 1) before reverting to ~1470 (Point 2)

(3) From here, it shot up to Point 3 – which I think is due to lower interest rate announcements (multiple times) by Central Bank

(4) There is therefore intermediate strength in the chart – to confirm this uptrend, the next pullback after Point 3 – expect it to hold strong above Point 2

(5) If #4 above fails, then it will sink back down

(6) Counter intuitively, probability now favours upmove until the trend is proven otherwise

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FBMKLCI

May 22nd, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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It was exactly 1 month since our last update. So far, FBMKLCI has followed the path exactly as how we have described it. What’s next?

  1. The max this uptrend can go (max, doesn’t mean it must go) is ~1550 before a change in trend.
  2. There is a cluster of support around `1380 to 1390
  3. So price will oscillate between these Resistance (#1) and Support (#2)
  4. When price nears either of these 2 lines OR when price coils into a clusters of closes (like #2 above), then we shall take a closer look at the price action
  5. Overall trend is still weak. Note my earlier posts since last year. And nothing has changed that fact yet.

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FBMKLCI

April 22nd, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. If you look at the post dated 9 April, I marked #3 to denote the maximum length of the current momentum before a change of behaviour
  2. Refer to the chart below on the 9 Apr post
  3. Compare the highlighted yellow bar above with the following 9 Apr post
  4. It couldn’t have gotten more accurate than this!
  5. I also noted previously there is support around the clusters of ~1325
  6. Also there is another smaller cluster of support around ~1350
  7. At this juncture, we need to see what the price does to the 2 clusters above to assess the market condition

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FBMKLCI

April 9th, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. From our last update, I drew an arbitrary line of 1000, noting to myself that’s the line to watch (ahead of time). As you can see that line turned to #1 above, at about 1200.
  2. We also noted that the 2007/08 long term support line is at 700/800. So that forms our longest term support line/
  3. So what’s ahead of us.
  4. We observe a cluster of supports around 1325 (marked #2 above). This will form an intermediate support level (which needs to be tested, i.e if it is successful, the line will hold. Else it will become an intermediate resistance line)
  5. #3 is where we draw a line ahead of time to see the maximum of how far this current momentum can carry through. (before any change of behaviour)
  6. So we know where the lines are much ahead of time and what we do now is just to wait patiently, like a sniper.

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FBMKLCI

March 17th, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. I have written extensively that the market is weak and poised to go down. (Tan Teng Boo of the Capital Dynamics fame has been waiting for this bear market for 10 years now I think)
  2. It is not possible to know the extent of the drop (only via hindsight) but we can deduce and infer if the market is strong or weak and what is the probability of the next move
  3. Now that the market has broken down, we will need to await for clusters of consolidation, which will signal a reversal. (this can take from 6 months to 2 years, depending)
  4. We are already in a bear market, which is long overdue.
  5. In 2007/08, the support line was around 800

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FBMKLCI

March 3rd, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. On 3 Feb, long before any political fiasco, I wrote that the market has broken the 1550 line and chance favours the downside to the 1450 area
  2. Unlike political parties, charts rarely lie and they dont reverse their position in 1 day (since it takes a long period of time to build the cause for the move, i.e. up or down)
  3. Exactly after 1 month from my last posting, the chart makes its first flirt on the 1450 line
  4. As i said previously, let’s see what happens now – a consolidated base will interest me of a reversal OR another downmove will resume

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PANAMY

February 21st, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. To the uninitiated, every chart looks the same
  2. But there is a huge difference to the trained eye
  3. Do you think the above is strong or weak? Buy or no buy
  4. Why?

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AirAsia

February 21st, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. If you must buy Airasia, this is the time to look at it
  2. Hard stop loss at RM1.14, with a potential upside to RM1.30

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Dutchlady

February 19th, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. Dlady is an interesting stock to watch
  2. Clear resistance is around RM65, while support is around RM40
  3. It is at an attractive price point to buy
  4. Cut loss should be set at slightly below RM40

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