dimpledbrain

The conceptual framework for a man's search for meaning

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SCGM

September 30th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. This is such a beautiful chart
  2. Human behaviour is so strong and fashionably predictable. Without fail.
  3. Do you think the above is quality buying or quality selling?
  4. I view the above as quality selling. It is climatic buying. Every bull rushes in to buy.
  5. If you have gotten in at ~RM0.98, you should sell everything and see how the reaction turns out to be to decide next course of action

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Trendless chart

September 24th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. A trendless chart is different from a trading range
  2. A trendless chart is without any professional manipulation and is bopping up and down aimlessly
  3. Of course a trendless chart can turn to a trending chart and vice versa (but when?)
  4. Best to be avoided at all cost
  5. Imagine if your capital is stuck in this kind of chart for years

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HAI-O

September 24th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. Look at this beautiful chart.
  2. In early Aug 2019, there is stopping action.
  3. And then for 13 sessions, there is total dullness in the market
  4. On 27 August, the market moves up with good volume
  5. On 30 Aug onwards, for 9 sessions, the market went into a re-accumulation zone (low volume at this period shows there is no additional supply)
  6. It keeps moving up in a beautiful uptrend channel

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SP Setia

September 23rd, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. This kind of chart is a rather easy set up to buy
  2. However, look at the last 2 sessions (circled in blue)
  3. On retracement, the volume increases, which is bearish. It means the market still has some supply to be absorbed
  4. Else, it will be a good trading buy

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KLCI

September 23rd, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. From March 2018 to Sept 2018, a long term downward channel has been established
  2. In June and July 2019 this year, for the first time it tried to go above the supply line
  3. And it becomes very clear that in July 2019, there is no sufficient demand to sustain this move and so it dropped back to the current trading range of 1600-1590
  4. Therefore the bear is still in control now
  5. We need more evidence to assess if a change of behaviour is happening

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Armada

September 15th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. I was first asked to check on Armada on 20/8. Refer to point A above.
  2. At that point in time, I said the chart is weak and there is no demand.
  3. Lo and behold on 30/8 (10 days later) demand came in and pushed the price up (Point B)
  4. It then retraces beautifully over the next 4 days. Observe how the closing price retraced into a tight spot and on decreasing volume (there is no further supply being pressed onto the market)
  5. The market went up above RM0.30 (the resistance line that I talked about in the last post)
  6. It still has the capacity to go up until demand is exhausted + supply comes in. What it does on the next retracement will provide clue onto the next likely movement

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Maybank

August 29th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. The worst place to trade is in the middle of a trading channel.
  2. Not surprisingly, this is the place where most retailers love to action.
  3. Looking at the chart above, a better trading price to buy is around RM8, i.e. the low of the downward channel.
  4. Trading at this price will also reduce price risk (refer to previous post)
  5. The probability of it going to RM9.30 (from current price) is there, albeit low
  6. David Weis, a master of Wyckoffian method, would call this as ‘fishing around the edges’.

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BTC

August 21st, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. At its purest form, BTC is a pure technical play with no fundamental whatsoever
  2. So reading this kind of chart is also very interesting
  3. From the peak at year end 2018, BTC hit USD20,000 per coin before going down to USD3800/coin early 2019
  4. The recent high at USD13K/ coin got back many ‘experts’ talking before it fizzles out to the price now
  5. So what next?
  6. I expect this to go sideway for the next 3-6 months
  7. Let’s revisit this in due time

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Price Risk vs Information Risk

August 21st, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. Most retailers confuse the concept between price risk and information risk
  2. Information risk means how much we know about an asset, example a publicly listed company
  3. If we know a lot about a company, we say that the information risk is low
  4. When retailers try to ‘research’ for more information about a company, the thinking here is to mitigate information risk
  5. However, the one factor that makes you money is price risk.
  6. The higher the price, the higher the price risk
  7. The golden rule to make money is Buy Low Sell High. Always. The second golden rule for the pro is Buy High Sell Higher. I do not know any other rule to make money than this.
  8. Price risk and information risk are inversely related, the more information is available in the market (and hence lower information risk), the higher the price will be (more premium attached to it and hence higher price risk)

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GenM

August 21st, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. Like I said before in the Public Bank post, for blue chip counters, you have to buy on weakness (and bite the bullet)
  2. The current price is attractive to collect

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