dimpledbrain

The conceptual framework for a man's search for meaning

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Maybank

November 8th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. somewhere around end August (highlighted A) I mentioned that a better place to buy Maybank is at RM8
  2. I mentioned the probability of it going up is low and is not a good place to trade
  3. The market subsequently proved me wrong by going up to the high of the downward channel
  4. At this juncture, we need demand to come in to push Maybank through the highlighted area of B, failing which I think chance favours the downside for FBMKLCI as a whole

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A Student of the Market

November 6th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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Today I want to narrate an observation and something that I learnt (usually the hard way) in the market.

Are you interested to be right or be able to make money in the market?

Most of us are psychologically inclined (no thanks to social conditioning) to appear right ( at the expense of making money in the market)

This is manifested in 2 obvious ways:

  1. We overstay our huge losses (with the intent of getting out even, so that our decision doesn’t look foolish)
  2. We cut our profits early (with the intent of locking in our small profit and not risking it so that if the market turns down, our decision makes us feel right)

These 2 are the most expensive lessons in the market.

Naturally we need to do the exact opposite to make money in the market. Being right or being wrong is an after effect.

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FBMKLC

November 4th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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We last spoke about waiting for the turning point in KLCI. It has happened last 2 weeks.

I’m looking at 1630-1640 in the next 3 months (highlighted in yellow)

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Banking stocks

October 31st, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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Tomorrow’s news – all banking stocks increase due to XXX

No, it is because I have already said the writing is on the wall on 16 October (refer to the post https://www.dimpledbrain.com/reits-and-banking.html )

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MAGNI

October 17th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. This is an interesting case study that I have
  2. I bought around A last year – its fundamental is irresistible
  3. In hindsight, B will be a better place to buy – climatic action
  4. C, D, D1 and D2 are good places to top up
  5. I got out at E
  6. In hindsight, F is a first sign of more serious warning and getting out at G is better
  7. The stock has been adjusted accordingly for bonus issue/ stock split etc

I made a respectable +43% on this stock, holding it for ~10 months

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AIRASIA

October 16th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. At A – clear selling is seen
  2. At A1, stopping of selling is seen.
  3. B will be a good entry point to buy
  4. C is where some supply comes in (hard to trade)
  5. D has no incoming demand to support the price, a precursor to a lower price
  6. Entire buying and selling got flipped at E – from bearish it suddenly turned bullish

This is one chart that I couldn’t read – I was told to buy at D. However I know it is weak. Even at E, I’m not convinced of the volume as it approaches the support turned resistance line.

We need to see the next few reaction bars to determine if this is genuine bullish or otherwise. Note that AirAsia is managed by very scary operators. Trading this will prove extremely difficult.

If you have any idea on how I can relook at this, I’ll be all ears.

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REITS and Banking

October 16th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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I’m penning this down so that it will appear more predictive when it happens.

REITS chart (first one below)is going down while the banking sector (finance) (2nd chart) is turning up – contrary to what the news is out there

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HAIO

September 30th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. We discussed this chart previously, marked A above
  2. Look at the next 3 days.
  3. And now see the following – so beautiful
  4. Trapped bull – strong gapping down action
  5. In Soros’ memoir, I recalled it was mentioned that Malaysian operators take no prisoners. This is total annihilation

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SCGM

September 30th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. This is such a beautiful chart
  2. Human behaviour is so strong and fashionably predictable. Without fail.
  3. Do you think the above is quality buying or quality selling?
  4. I view the above as quality selling. It is climatic buying. Every bull rushes in to buy.
  5. If you have gotten in at ~RM0.98, you should sell everything and see how the reaction turns out to be to decide next course of action

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Trendless chart

September 24th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
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  1. A trendless chart is different from a trading range
  2. A trendless chart is without any professional manipulation and is bopping up and down aimlessly
  3. Of course a trendless chart can turn to a trending chart and vice versa (but when?)
  4. Best to be avoided at all cost
  5. Imagine if your capital is stuck in this kind of chart for years

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