dimpledbrain

The conceptual framework for a man's search for meaning

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Optimism vs Pessimism

February 3rd, 2020 by dimpledbrain
Respond

  1. The discussion on optimism vs pessimism is as old as time itself
  2. Either side of the camp hated the other side
  3. Optimism gets things done but the downfall will be from overconfidence. Every major scandal, if you observe around you, stems from this trait and blinded by this problem
  4. Pessimism views the world in a more realistic way (i.e. more accurate picture of reality), however overwhelmed by pessimism, they will not take action
  5. If you look at the book of Ecclesiastes, you might on your first impression, think that the book is pessimistic
  6. However, note that it is written by someone who had it all. It is written by an optimistic person who thinks a dose of pessimism is important
  7. Ecc 2:10-11 “I denied myself nothing my eyes desired; I refused my heart no pleasure. My heart took delight in all my labor, and this was the reward for all my toil.”
  8. The book ends with an encouragement to be bold
  9. Ecc 11:4 “Whoever watches the wind will not plant; whoever looks at the clouds will not reap.”
  10. However, it offers no way of balancing the two. (Ecclesiastes just drowns you in pessimism and asks you to be optimistic at the end)
  11. If we draw a line depicting this, and put optimism at 100 and pessimism at 0, ideally we would like to be somewhere in the region of 75
  12. Enter self compassion
  13. Self compassion is the concept where we forgive ourselves for the mistakes we do and in doing so we continue to forge ahead. We tell ourselves that to err is human and we continuously learn from our mistakes. We will not be like the proverbial deer caught in headlights. Inaction kills.
  14. If we are too optimistic and do not have a sense of pessimism, we will be slaughtered by overconfidence
  15. On the contrary, if we are too pessimistic, we will not take any action to better ourselves
  16. So using the concept of self compassion, be at 75 on the scale

Suggested reading

  1. Ecclesiastes (click here for the link)
  2. Barking Up the Wrong Tree by Eric Barker

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FBMKLCI

February 3rd, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. On the 13th Jan posting, I mentioned that we have drawn the line 1550 to watch, ahead of time.
  2. Now lo and behold, the price is flirting continuously with the line
  3. We also know from my 11 Dec posting that the overall market is weak – and hence this forms our primary impression of the market
  4. Now that it has broken down from the line of 1550, it has a high probability of going all the way down to 1450 OR it holds at 1550 and makes another attempt to go above 1620
  5. On the balance of probability, going near to 1450 or thereabout is more likely at this juncture
  6. I m looking at the 1450 range and a consolidated base will interest me of a reversal.

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OPR 2.75%

January 22nd, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. 1 day after I posted bearish outlook for REIT, the central bank slashed rate by 25 basis points.
  2. This will temporarily boost up Reits/ Propert counters while banking/ finance will be negatively impacted
  3. My view on REITs remains until the chart tells me otherwise.
  4. This is interesting – let’s see what happens next.
  5. Will be following this closely
  6. This is also a good opportunity to test whether chart makes sense or not
  7. Why I think chart makes sense:
    • Collective output by all market participants
    • The market is always larger than a single entity
    • The weakness or strength developed in the chart is over a period of time
    • You can postpone it but you cant prevent it
    • I’m penning this down (before the fact unfolds ahead of us) – and you can judge this for yourselves too. (taking into consideration that I could be wrong as well in the process).

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/01/22/bank-negara-mpc-cuts-opr-by-25bp-to-275

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REITS

January 21st, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. I like REITs and would like to have some exposure in it
  2. However, the chart is weak
  3. On the balance of probability, I expect it to go to the low of ~950 than to shoot up to ~980
  4. Maybe only in 1-3 months’ time, will we know the exact reason why REIT is weak
  5. Let’s wait to reassess later on

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FBMKLCI

January 16th, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. There is temporary strength in the chart (while coincidentally the whole news out there is painted super bearish)
  2. I think there is an opportunity to push the index up to ~1600 area
  3. We then need to see what it does there to further assess the market condition

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FBMKLCI

January 13th, 2020 by dimpledbrain
Respond

  1. We last updated FBMKLCI on the highlighted bar above.
  2. As expected it went up to the trading channel
  3. However the last few bars look weak to me
  4. If price could not recover to the region of 1600-1620, chances favour on the downside
  5. The line that we have drawn to watch (ahead of time) – 1550

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Mental Experiment: Incoming train

January 10th, 2020 by dimpledbrain
Respond

Imagine there is an incoming train. Do you have anyone in mind that you will:

  • Jump down to the train track to save the person at all costs
  • Extend your arm to save
  • Do nothing
  • Give a kick to the person down the track

This is a mental experiment – there won’t be any repercussion of any kind at all. No one will notice. Among all the people that you know, who is in which bucket?

Count the number of people in each of the 4 buckets

Now, after it has given you extreme satisfaction on Bucket C and Bucket D, consider this – the incoming train might never come, but it is within our control to remove all those people in these two buckets from our life.

Or at least minimize them in your life. That’s 100% within our control

Food for thought?

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BTC

January 8th, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. From the last BTC post, the price was around ~USD7300
  2. I said it looks like it is turning down
  3. It then went down to a low of ~USD6400 although it did so more precipitously ( I said it would probably turn down in the next 1-2 months; it just took 1/2 month, give or take)
  4. It then blasted through the resistance line of ~USD7,700
  5. So what are the new levels to watch
  6. At resistance, it could potentially reach for the USD9.5K line, while support is at the USD7,700 line
  7. Let’s revisit this in 1 month’s time

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PETRONM

December 20th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
Respond

  1. PetronM appears to be halting to a standstill
  2. It has the chance to breakout to reach RM7, a resistance line from previous high
  3. Stop should be placed somewhere underneath the clusters around RM5 (highlighted)

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FBMKLCI

December 20th, 2019 by dimpledbrain
Respond

  1. In the last post, I mentioned that KLCI might go up to the lower of the upper channel for window dressing purpose (highlighted middle yellow)
  2. It exceeded my expectation and blasted through the line
  3. From here we have a clear trading channel line (highlighted yellow bottom and top)
  4. We would need to see what the price does when it approaches the 2 lines (support/ resistance) for us to make the next educated guess
  5. Happy holidays

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