dimpledbrain

The conceptual framework for a man's search for meaning

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ETH

February 13th, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. Beyond the point that all crypto will trend BTC, what can we say about ETH
  2. It has blasted through the upward channel
  3. There is resistance around USD300 – this will be the line to watch once price approaches this level

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BTC

February 13th, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. We last updated on BTC on the highlighted yellow bar
  2. I mentioned that there is support at USD7.7K and it can potentially reach USD9.5K
  3. It then went through the line and now BTC is around USD10K
  4. What are the new levels – i have drawn an upward trend channel. Price should be oscillating this channel for the coming 1-2 months
  5. There is an upward bias now
  6. I notice a strong resistance at USD12K, USD13K and USD14K lines

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REITS

February 12th, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. We left our discussion somewhere around the highlighted yellow bar
  2. I said that I expect it to go down to ~950 than to shoot up to ~980
  3. Depending on your timeframe and how you looked at it, it actually went up to ~980 (albeit for 1 -2 days) for one last time before diving to the low of ~940
  4. I still expect this to go down in the medium term (1-3 months)
  5. BNM made a statement today that they have ample room to adjust interest rates (and that’s the reason, in hindsight, why the chart went up 5 days ago)
  6. You can always see it first on the chart, the news will follow

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Optimism vs Pessimism

February 3rd, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. The discussion on optimism vs pessimism is as old as time itself
  2. Either side of the camp hated the other side
  3. Optimism gets things done but the downfall will be from overconfidence. Every major scandal, if you observe around you, stems from this trait and blinded by this problem
  4. Pessimism views the world in a more realistic way (i.e. more accurate picture of reality), however overwhelmed by pessimism, they will not take action
  5. If you look at the book of Ecclesiastes, you might on your first impression, think that the book is pessimistic
  6. However, note that it is written by someone who had it all. It is written by an optimistic person who thinks a dose of pessimism is important
  7. Ecc 2:10-11 “I denied myself nothing my eyes desired; I refused my heart no pleasure. My heart took delight in all my labor, and this was the reward for all my toil.”
  8. The book ends with an encouragement to be bold
  9. Ecc 11:4 “Whoever watches the wind will not plant; whoever looks at the clouds will not reap.”
  10. However, it offers no way of balancing the two. (Ecclesiastes just drowns you in pessimism and asks you to be optimistic at the end)
  11. If we draw a line depicting this, and put optimism at 100 and pessimism at 0, ideally we would like to be somewhere in the region of 75
  12. Enter self compassion
  13. Self compassion is the concept where we forgive ourselves for the mistakes we do and in doing so we continue to forge ahead. We tell ourselves that to err is human and we continuously learn from our mistakes. We will not be like the proverbial deer caught in headlights. Inaction kills.
  14. If we are too optimistic and do not have a sense of pessimism, we will be slaughtered by overconfidence
  15. On the contrary, if we are too pessimistic, we will not take any action to better ourselves
  16. So using the concept of self compassion, be at 75 on the scale

Suggested reading

  1. Ecclesiastes (click here for the link)
  2. Barking Up the Wrong Tree by Eric Barker

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FBMKLCI

February 3rd, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. On the 13th Jan posting, I mentioned that we have drawn the line 1550 to watch, ahead of time.
  2. Now lo and behold, the price is flirting continuously with the line
  3. We also know from my 11 Dec posting that the overall market is weak – and hence this forms our primary impression of the market
  4. Now that it has broken down from the line of 1550, it has a high probability of going all the way down to 1450 OR it holds at 1550 and makes another attempt to go above 1620
  5. On the balance of probability, going near to 1450 or thereabout is more likely at this juncture
  6. I m looking at the 1450 range and a consolidated base will interest me of a reversal.

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OPR 2.75%

January 22nd, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. 1 day after I posted bearish outlook for REIT, the central bank slashed rate by 25 basis points.
  2. This will temporarily boost up Reits/ Propert counters while banking/ finance will be negatively impacted
  3. My view on REITs remains until the chart tells me otherwise.
  4. This is interesting – let’s see what happens next.
  5. Will be following this closely
  6. This is also a good opportunity to test whether chart makes sense or not
  7. Why I think chart makes sense:
    • Collective output by all market participants
    • The market is always larger than a single entity
    • The weakness or strength developed in the chart is over a period of time
    • You can postpone it but you cant prevent it
    • I’m penning this down (before the fact unfolds ahead of us) – and you can judge this for yourselves too. (taking into consideration that I could be wrong as well in the process).

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/01/22/bank-negara-mpc-cuts-opr-by-25bp-to-275

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REITS

January 21st, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. I like REITs and would like to have some exposure in it
  2. However, the chart is weak
  3. On the balance of probability, I expect it to go to the low of ~950 than to shoot up to ~980
  4. Maybe only in 1-3 months’ time, will we know the exact reason why REIT is weak
  5. Let’s wait to reassess later on

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FBMKLCI

January 16th, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. There is temporary strength in the chart (while coincidentally the whole news out there is painted super bearish)
  2. I think there is an opportunity to push the index up to ~1600 area
  3. We then need to see what it does there to further assess the market condition

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FBMKLCI

January 13th, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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  1. We last updated FBMKLCI on the highlighted bar above.
  2. As expected it went up to the trading channel
  3. However the last few bars look weak to me
  4. If price could not recover to the region of 1600-1620, chances favour on the downside
  5. The line that we have drawn to watch (ahead of time) – 1550

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Mental Experiment: Incoming train

January 10th, 2020 by dimpledbrain
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Imagine there is an incoming train. Do you have anyone in mind that you will:

  • Jump down to the train track to save the person at all costs
  • Extend your arm to save
  • Do nothing
  • Give a kick to the person down the track

This is a mental experiment – there won’t be any repercussion of any kind at all. No one will notice. Among all the people that you know, who is in which bucket?

Count the number of people in each of the 4 buckets

Now, after it has given you extreme satisfaction on Bucket C and Bucket D, consider this – the incoming train might never come, but it is within our control to remove all those people in these two buckets from our life.

Or at least minimize them in your life. That’s 100% within our control

Food for thought?

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