I recently read George Soros’ The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means, a bargain book I got off Big Bad Wolf 2012. Having read the author’s Alchemy of Finance, this 162 page book further refines his idea on reflexivity. While I don’t claim to understand every single thing he talked about, I posted on my goodreads.com account, “Just read all his books anyway.”
Tag: human behaviour
The Liberation of Choice
When the master says the first step is to build choices, I thought hey, this guy’s onto something. It took me some time to digest his words. Building choices is different from making the right choices. He, of course, is none other than Richard Bandler, the co-creator of neuro-linguistic programming (NLP).
The Next 3 Rules
We have previously discussed on a number of interesting concepts like game theory (click here), randomness (click here) and various biases (click here) that we should at least be aware of, if not overcome.
On one fine day, I was staring at the sea waves advancing like galloping white horses when the next 3 things that I would like to explore in depth came to me:
The good news of the bad news
Almost anyone is thrilled to read articles like ‘top 5 successful traits of business executives’, books like Jim Collins’ Good to Great, successful traits of certain individuals and how we can emulate them and not to mention the bizarre following and hero worshipping of certain individuals and the likes.
But the truth of the matter is you and I should treat them like fantasy novels.
Bayes’ theorem and the base rate neglect
This is a continuation of the previous posting. Please click here to go to the first posting.
The answer is 41%. Why?
To recap,
- 85% of the car is Green and the remaining 15% Blue
- A witness testified that the cab involved in the accident was Blue
- The witness was tested for the ability to discriminate Green from Blue and was found to be correct 80% of the time
- What is the probability that the cab in the accident was Blue as the witness testified?
(a) 80% (b) 50% (c) 41% (d) 29%
As best as science can describe it, there is a short cut system in us, scientifically called System 1 or commonly known as Intuition or Six Sense. The bestseller author Malcolm Gladwell romanticized the term Blink, which basically meant the same thing.
All of us would definitely experience this, but almost vaguely if we don’t stop to ponder upon it. Are women more gifted with intuition since they are more feely type?
Now enter strength
The darker arts of body language
Life is a story that only time can tell
My English teacher once told me that the toughest part in the language to master is tenses. (besides the absolutely ridiculous spelling and pronunciation). However the silver lining is that you can very quickly grasp the idea in this post. Do you realize your attitude towards time can reveal a big chunk about you?